Will Domingo German lead the New York Yankees to victory on the Oakland A’s?
The New York Yankees will be the most profitable group in baseball betting. That’s not normal. The Yankees generally find themselves at the red, dragged down with all that chalk from their loving fans. But at press time, New York sit comfortably atop the American League East in 83-43 (plus-20.23 gaming units), that places them on pace to 107 wins this year — something that they have not completed since 1998 when they put the group record at 114.
Compare and contrast to the low-budget Oakland Athletics. They’re back in the green this year in 71-53, raking in 14.75 units against the MLB odds, but once again, it is going to be a dogfight just to get the A’s to the playoffs. They are 1.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot, using a difficult three-game series coming up against the visiting Yankees. Could they get the business done in Tuesday’s opener (10:07 p.m. ET, ESPN)? Or do the Bombers belong into our MLB picks as –150 road faves?
It looks like New York may have finally run out of betting value. Here are the projections we are looking at for Tuesday’s matchup:
FiveThirtyEight: New York 55 percent
Equivalent Odds (using SBR Odds Converter): –122
Jeff Sagarin’s Generic Total (approx.) : 9.25-9.5 runs
Given that moneyline projection, we definitely don’t need the Yankees in –150. And that’s up from –130 at the open, using the consensus reports demonstrating 94 percent of premature bettors loading up on chalk. The ideal price on Oakland at press time is +140, which gives us a little wiggle room on the moneyline — even though we would rather have the A’s at around +162 or more before laying down the big bucks, so we are able to conquer the vigorish in the very long term. Perhaps the gambling public will keep beating New York and get us before game time.
We will not be recommending the total for Tuesday’s contest, that’s for certain. There may have been some value about the”under” when this game opened at 10 runs, but got driven down to 9.5 runs fairly quickly, with unanimous permission from ancient bettors. Too poor; the”beneath” is 35-29 at the Coliseum this season.
Free MLB Choose: Oakland +140 in William Hill