Against the Spread Pick
The Spurs just won at Toronto and have had a full couple of days to prepare for this one. The road has not been overly kind though as they are only winning a third of the time, not very Spurs like. They have won their last two road tilts though upsetting the Raptors and Celtics so taking on another top team in the East might not be too daunting. They have got their offense humming right now and are a surprising 6th in scoring even though they do not exploit the three much. Miami will be happy to be home after losing their last two games on the road, both upsets against sub .500 teams. Losing to the Knicks was especially surprising as the defense just fell apart. They allowed the Knicks to shoot over 50% for the game and they could not turn them over. I think the Heat will come out a little hungrier as a result and that is bad news for the Nets. Take Miami.
Over Under Pick
Miami is only giving up 104ppg at home and are still going over two thirds of the time. That is because this team is much more capable offensively than most are giving them credit for. They still play with rugged intensity but Jimmy Butler gives them a great closer. Take the over here.