The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers Era has formally begun — for worse or better. The early returns don’t look too good for your Green Bay Packers: They beat the Chicago Bears (–3 at home) 10-3 in Thursday’s season opener, even with Rogers going 18-of-30 for 203 yards and one touchdown. Defense? Very yes. Offense? Not too much.
The Minnesota Vikings (–3.5 at home) looked better in their own 28-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons, leaning on both protection and rushing to find the task done. Old-school! Along with also the consensus reports at press time reveal the Vikings having a 54-percent lean as 2.5-point street dogs for Sunday’s matchup (1 p.m. ET, FOX) from Green Bay. Do they belong in our NFL picks?
Quite possibly. FiveThirtyEight sees the Packers as just 1.5-point faves, with their Elo-based projections. Jeff Sagarin’s figures at The USA Today are close to the real NFL odds, however, together with Minnesota rated ahead of Green Bay on ground.
Why the distinction? As we go to press week 1 is still in progress, and Sagarin’s numbers haven’t been upgraded yet. They will need to be, in Soldier Field the Packers crime had following the issues. Granted, the Bears had the best defense in the league last year, according to the DVOA stats (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. Get those fresh numbers before gambling.
We cashed in with the”under” last Thursday, so perhaps that is well worth another shot. The consensus reports show 57 percent of ancient bettors feeling the same way, forcing the total from 46 to as much as 44. At press time, 45 remains accessible; until we’ve got some overall projections to operate with, we are basically working without a net, however, the”below” has some merit here.
We know the offense of Green Bay is sketchy — though that might/should change as Rodgers and LaFleur get some more reps in. Additionally, it looks like the Vikings want to run the ballwhich is always great for chewing up the clock. And both guards appear to be doing just fine through 60 minutes of play.
Free NFL Pick: Under 45 (–107) in BetMania
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks record through Week 1: 0-0 ATS, 1-0 Totals