Against The Spread Pick
The Commodores are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak and they have won exactly one SEC game over the last two years. They average 72.9 points per game and allow 73.9 points per game. These numbers are a little skewed as much of their early-season scoring was achieved with the now-injured Aaron Nesmith in the lineup, but the best way to describe the offense led by Saben Lee and his 15.9 ppg is streaky. Alabama is a team that can score in a hurry this season and they have the second-best offense in the nation as they score 83.2 ppg. They just came off of a 90-86 win over South Carolina with a rotation that ran six deep and that didn’t include the injured John Petty Jr. and his 15.2 ppg. Vanderbilt just isn’t playing very well right now and as hard as coach Jerry Stackhouse has tried the team seems to have accepted how this season has turned out over the last couple of weeks. Take a hot ‘Bama squad minus the points.
Over Under Pick
This is a tricky one as Vanderbilt is a team that shoots a lot of threes – just like Alabama – but has not been hitting them lately. If the Commodores get hot then they could push a reasonable total, but the total is high and I don’t trust Vandy not to have the cold streaks that it has been unable to pull itself out of at any point during games this season. They let Ole Miss put together a 19-4 run just before half time in their last game for example and when their offense is cold the team just can’t find a way to manufacture a basket. The under is 4-1 in the five previous games between the schools and while the tempo will be high, there will be too many mistakes and missed shots from the team in black and gold for me to have any confidence in the over. Go with the under here.