Rematches aren’t rare in the world of mixed martial arts. When a fighter sticks round the business for a significant length of time, then you can be assured that they’ll be scheduled to battle an opponent they have already faced at one point or another. In addition to that, dominant winners will constantly have a rematch or two solely because of running out of new opponents to face in their weight category.
Whenever these rematches occur, how should you bet them? In the event you bet about the fighter that won the first fight? Is the underdog the perfect play? That’s a question I wanted to reply so I brought up any info on the topic.
Since UFC 1, when boxers have confronted each other for a repeat bout, the winner of the preceding fight has gone 71-43-3 in the rematch. This means the former winner is victorious in 62% of rematch??fights.
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So as to utilize these numbers to our whole advantage as bettors, we need to dive right into them a little bit deeper. Our database for fight UFC odds goes back into 2012, so we’ll use from then until current day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size for favorites and underdogs.
Fighters who won the first fight walked??to the rematch as a betting favorite??36??times out of a total of 60??rematches since 2012, winning 28??of these fights (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that’s an extremely high success rate, the profit from such types of fights isn’t quite as big as you might??imagine given the fact that a decent portion of the fighters??would’ve been favorites by a substantial margin. $100 bettors would have walked away with a profit of $377.64??if they kindly wager on the fighter that won the previous bout when they were recorded as the favorite??in the second struggle all 36??times this happened.
The most important (and rewarding ) statistic I found was that the fighter who won the first bout??won 14??from 24??rematches when they were listed as a underdog, providing $100 bettors a gain of $1,013.46.
All in all, because 2012,??should you wager $100 on the fighter that won the very first battle when they competed in??a rematch, then you would’ve gained a profit of $1,391.10.
History will repeat itself, and UFC rematches aren’t any exception to that rule.
Bettors may look at UFC 210 as an prime example of that as Daniel Cormier went to his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog despite winning their first fight. He won in lopsided fashion through submission. Rose Namajunas was also an underdog at EVEN money heading into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and proceeded to win in a convincing unanimous decision.
While the figures reveal that betting on the fighter that won the first fight if they rematch a competition is rewarding, the entire reverse can clearly be stated about betting on fighters at a rematch bout who lost the first contest.
Favorites in rematches if they dropped the first battle are 10-14, dropping $100 bettors that a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches if they lost the first battle are 8-28, losing $100 bettors a total of 979.
In other words betting statistics into phrases as simple as you can, you can feel secure betting onto a fighter once they choose someone whom they’ve already beaten. Whether they’re recorded as favorites or not, you will come to acquire a gain long term executing this strategy.
Not all rematches are created equal. There are a few conflicts that never should be scrapped a second??time, or possibly a third??time in certain cases *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these fights out of the equation, for curiosity’s sake??I wished to consider the amounts when shooting ONLY title fights into account. For the struggle to fall under this class, both the first fight and the rematch needed to have been to get the buckle.
The all time listing for the former winner heading right into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, previous winners in fights to the title are 17-3, netting $100 bettors a profit of $725.20.
These numbers certainly do nothing but further the purpose that betting on the prior winner heading right into a rematch is a smart play, so feel free to apply this approach moving ahead in the event you wish to win a little cash.

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