Against The Spread Pick
The Boilermakers head to Madison to face a hot Wisconsin team. The Badgers are looking for their third straight after bouncing Nebraska 81-64 on the road on Saturday. Wisconsin has seen two impressive victories over Ohio State and Michigan State in their last four. Both defenses rank in the top 25 for opponents points per game. Following a loss at Ohio State, Purdue has just dipped below .500 in conference play. Trevion Williams has been quiet offensively only scoring double-digits once in the last four games for the Boilermakers and I don’t see it improving against a dominant Badgers defense on the road. Purdue is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Look for the badgers to get it done at home.
Over Under Pick
To say that Purdue has been inconsistent this year would be an understatement. They have the largest game to game variance in adjusted efficiency of any team in the country and it’s not even close. Trusting Purdue on either side of the ball, especially on the road, is hard. They allowed 88 points against Penn State and Ohio State shot just under 50 percent against them. The total is low due to the fact that both teams play very slow paced and are ranked in the bottom twenty in the nation for adjusted tempo. However, the over is 6-1 in Purdue’s last seven and 8-2-1 in Wisconsin’s last eleven home games. The over has also hit in the Badgers last two games. With the inconsistent play of Purdue and Wisconsins recent offensive outbursts the over is the play.