Against The Spread Pick
This game was a non-event earlier in the year when Mississippi State absolutely mauled the Tigers 72-45. The Bulldogs are sneakily making some noise in a top half of the SEC that is more vulnerable than was expected earlier in the season and they have won three of their last four to move to 18-10 on the season. They are led by a potent offense anchored by Reggie Kelly and his 17.4 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. Kelly is a big threat here and it is hard to see a Missouri player who will be able to guard him and keep his scoring down. Mizzou has also won three of four – with a loss to Arkansas in the middle – and they are 11-3 at home thanks to a defense that allows an impressive 61 ppg. Dru Smith is their main scorer as he goes for 12.5 ppg, but this is a balanced attack. I like Mississippi State here based on how their crushed Mizzou in their first clash and they are an intriguing 20-8 in their last 28 games ATS on a Saturday.
Over Under Pick
I like the over here as this is a Bulldogs team that has been impressive offensively this season. They average 73.5 ppg and have been good on the road as of late as they have averaged 70.3 ppg away from their own floor over their last six road games. Mizzou will keep the scoring down here as they look to play at a considered pace and will not throw up shots unless they are high percentage. They hold their opponents to just 60.8 ppg at home, but I feel like the scoring power of the Bulldogs will push them a decent margin higher than this number. Mizzou averages 72 ppg at home – it is their away scoring that keeps their total offensive number low – and they will get close to this number against a Bulldogs defense that leaks almost 74 ppg on the road. Throw in some recent turnover issues for both sides and the chances for runout baskets will be high. Over is the pick.