Against the Spread Pick
It will be a battle for first place in the American Athletic Conference when the Houston Cougars host the Cincinnati Bearcats on Sunday. Both teams are tied atop the league (also with Tulsa) at 11-4. Contrary to what the spread suggests, this one will likely be every bit as competitive as the standings indicate. Cincinnati has not lost a game by more than two points and has not even lost a game in regulation since way back on Jan. 16. The Bearcats also beat Houston 64-62 on Feb. 1. Cougars guard Quentin Grimes, who is his team’s second-leading scorer (11.8 ppg) is questionable for Sunday because of a hip injury. The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as favorites. It is also worth noting that the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head matchups and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six. Back CINCINNATI with plenty of confidence.
Over Under Pick
Only 126 points were scored in the previous head-to-head matchup. Especially if Grimes can’t go, more of the same should be expected to continue. Cincinnati’s offense turns the ball over an alarming 14.6 times per outing. The under is 49-17-2 in the Bearcats’ last 68 on the road, 9-2-1 in their last 12 against opponents with winning records, and 15-6-2 in their last 23 as underdogs. It is also 11-2 in the Cougars’ last 13 overall, 5-1 in their last six at home, and 10-2-1 in their last 13 against opponents with winning records. This game should stay comfortably UNDER the total.