Alabama

Mississippi State

PICKS


Alabama +3.5 Point Spread
-105



Over 157.5 Game Totals
-110

Against The Spread Pick

While this might not be a marquee match-up on paper, this is a huge game in terms of building resumes. Alabama are currently projected to be one of the “Next Four Out”, while Mississippi State is one of the “First Four Out”. Both of these projections come from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Now Alabama are off a win over Ole Miss in which they dominated them, winning 103-78. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs lost to Texas A&M by a score of 87-75. The Tide are an impressive 11-3 ATS away from home this season, while Mississippi State are only 7-7 ATS at home. Also, note that the Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including a 90-69 win in the first meeting this season back in January. Alabama are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, so I like them to not only cover in this game, but win outright to further improve their chances at an at-large bid.

Over Under Pick

Any game involving Alabama this year is going to have a total through the roof. The Tide are scoring 83.3 points per game this season overall. This average goes up in road games to 87.2 points an over their last five games, they are averaging 91 points. Scoring comes at a price however, and that price for Alabama is horrible defense. Allowing on average around 80 points per game could spell trouble if their offense is not rolling. The Bulldogs actually have a very good defense in home games, yet I really do not think they can slow down the Tide. Even though this total is extremely high, I have to lean to the over to cash.